The parametric model of a M825 WP round is here employed in order to simulate the trajectory of single WP wedges, and their interaction with architectural features in a typical residential urban environment ? in this case, the Jabalya refugee camp.

In the model, a script is run to randomize the initial distribution of WP wedges at burst, so as to reproduce the random dimension of their distribution in real deployment. From this moment of random burst, the fall trajectory of each wedge in the air is simulated according to its speed, weight and shape. The model is set to register the initial points of impact of the WP wedges, to count and to classify them according to the type of surface impacted ? either roof, facade, or ground. Only initial points of impact are considered here, and the model does not attempt to simulate ricochet effects.

150 iterations of the simulation were run over a 30,000 square meters area of Jabalya. The results have been recorded and analyzed, in order to assess the statistical probability of each impact scenario.