REPORT: WHITE PHOSPHORUS

Macro Analysis

4.3 Urban Simulation

The analysis is conducted in three typical, densely populated residential neighborhoods, each in a different city: the Jabalya refugee camp, North of Gaza City; the city-center of Tel Aviv; the West Village in New York City; and the 9th arrondissement of Paris. The cities and sites are chosen arbitrarily and are presented here as examples of a densely populated urban environment. Each of these sites is overlaid with an ellipse delimiting the maximal Coverage Areas of the M825 WP projectile.

At this scale of analysis, the distribution of wedges within the Coverage Area itself can be thought of as random: every point in the Coverage Area could potentially be hit by a wedge, so the entire area is considered affected by the WP wedges, and the risk homogeneously distributed within the Coverage Area.

All buildings within the ellipse are considered affected structures: they are identified by land use and counted. Additionally, an estimate is made of the population within the Coverage Area, as an indicator of the total civilian exposure in each scenario.

Cities
Gaza a b c
Tel Aviv d e f
New York City g h i
Paris j k l

14

  • Jabalia Camp
  • Population: 93,455 people14
  • Area: 1.4 sq miles
  • Density: 66,754 per sq mile
Testing Small Gaza Footprint
  • Buildings Affected
  • 320 Housing Units
  • Buildings Affected
  • 2 schools
  • 1 pharmacy
  • 2 retail stores
  • 80 housing units
  • Buildings Affected
  • 1 Mosque
  • 1 NGO
  • 1 Distribution Center
  • 12 retail stores
  • 120 housing units
  • Tel Aviv
  • Population: 7,500 people15
  • Area: 0.18 sq mile
  • Density: 41,667 per sq mile
Testing Small Tel Aviv Footprint
  • Buildings Affected
  • 500 Housing Units
  • 1 School
  • 2 Museums
  • 30 Local Businesses
  • Buildings Affected
  • 300 Housing Units
  • 1 Pavillion
  • 1 Theater
  • 6 Local Businesses
  • Buildings Affected
  • 320 Housing Units
  • NYC
  • Population: 27,411 people16
  • Area: 0.3 sq mile
  • Density: 91,370 per sq mile
Testing Small NYC Footprint
  • Buildings Affected
  • 200 Housing Units
  • 2 Theaters
  • 7 NYU Buidlings
  • 2 Local Businesses
  • Buildings Affected
  • 325 Housing Units
  • 4 NYU Buildings
  • 3 Banks
  • 40 Local Businesses
  • 1 Library
  • Buildings Affected
  • 950 Housing Units
  • 40 Local Businesses
  • 1 NYU Building
  • 1 Church
  • Paris
  • Population: 61,046 people17
  • Area: 0.84 sq mile
  • Density: 72,673 per sq mile
Testing Small NYC Footprint
  • Buildings Affected
  • 1 Opera
  • 1 Department Store
  • 1 Bank
  • 1 Retailer
  • 2 Restaurants
  • Buildings Affected
  • 400 Housing Units
  • 1 Post Office
  • 15 Local Businesses
  • 2 Hotels
  • Buildings Affected
  • 250 Housing Units
  • 1 Train Station
  • 7 Hotels
  • 3 Retailer
  • 10 Local Businesses
  • 2 Banks
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